BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

There’s a lot of money to be obtained this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I’ll be going heavier than usual this week chasing the big GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than usual. Here is actually the first time we have observed a 30k top prize so I believe it’s well worth chasing in the event that you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from the fight against Brian Ortega, thus we are down to 11 fights and we should see a great deal of ties with this card together with the popular lineups. If you’re chasing that $30K then you will want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the remainder of the area. With that said, let us get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That is just too much line worth to pass in cash games which makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this battle, he should be highly owned that it won’t even damage your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so perhaps think about avoiding the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of the week.
GPP drama of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I just chose Paul Felder as my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all do not care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10% of lineups did not possess him and you merely have to be top ~50 percent of the field to money in cash games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will probably be over 50% owned. If he loses, that’s half of the field that is dead without a chance at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% simply due to the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a triumph with the low owned man to set you at a much better place of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the power to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it really shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we’re interested in finding that boom or bust drama and that is Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog play of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 years before, but now we get a fading Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this fight standing for most the fight which should give him a big edge. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and if he’s taken I believe he is going to have the ability to get up if he isn’t able to acquire a entry of his own. In case Pettis can win a determination then I presume he will pay his off DK price tag and will be a good underdog to utilize so you can save salary on your lineups. I may even find this fight ending from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a human body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the struggle, but I do not find him paying that large price . He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the floor is where he will have his main edge in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I want at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, making him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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